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91 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
91 lines
3.3 KiB
Markdown
# Polymarket Autopilot: Automated Paper Trading
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Manually monitoring prediction markets for arbitrage opportunities and executing trades is time-consuming and requires constant attention. You want to test and refine trading strategies without risking real capital.
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This workflow automates paper trading on Polymarket with custom strategies:
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• Monitors market data via API (prices, volume, spreads)
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• Executes paper trades using TAIL (trend-following) and BONDING (contrarian) strategies
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• Tracks portfolio performance, P&L, and win rate
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• Delivers daily summaries to Discord with trade logs and insights
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• Learns from patterns: adjusts strategy parameters based on backtesting results
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## Pain Point
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Prediction markets move fast. Manual trading means missing opportunities, emotional decisions, and difficulty tracking what works. Testing strategies with real money risks losses before you understand market behavior.
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## What It Does
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The autopilot continuously scans Polymarket for opportunities, simulates trades using configurable strategies, and logs everything for analysis. You wake up to a summary of what it "traded" overnight, what worked, and what didn't.
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Example strategies:
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- **TAIL**: Follow trends when volume spikes and momentum is clear
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- **BONDING**: Buy contrarian positions when markets overreact to news
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- **SPREAD**: Identify mispriced markets with arbitrage potential
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## Skills Needed
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- `web_search` or `web_fetch` (for Polymarket API data)
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- `postgres` or SQLite for trade logs and portfolio tracking
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- Discord integration for daily reports
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- Cron jobs for continuous monitoring
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- Sub-agent spawning for parallel market analysis
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## How to Set it Up
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1. Set up a database for paper trading:
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```sql
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CREATE TABLE paper_trades (
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id SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
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market_id TEXT,
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market_name TEXT,
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strategy TEXT,
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direction TEXT,
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entry_price DECIMAL,
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exit_price DECIMAL,
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quantity DECIMAL,
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pnl DECIMAL,
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timestamp TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW()
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);
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CREATE TABLE portfolio (
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id SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
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total_value DECIMAL,
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cash DECIMAL,
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positions JSONB,
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updated_at TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW()
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);
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```
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2. Create a Discord channel for updates (e.g., #polymarket-autopilot).
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3. Prompt OpenClaw:
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```text
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You are a Polymarket paper trading autopilot. Run continuously (via cron every 15 minutes):
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1. Fetch current market data from Polymarket API
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2. Analyze opportunities using these strategies:
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- TAIL: Follow strong trends (>60% probability + volume spike)
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- BONDING: Contrarian plays on overreactions (sudden drops >10% on news)
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- SPREAD: Arbitrage when YES+NO > 1.05
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3. Execute paper trades in the database (starting capital: $10,000)
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4. Track portfolio state and update positions
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Every morning at 8 AM, post a summary to Discord #polymarket-autopilot:
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- Yesterday's trades (entry/exit prices, P&L)
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- Current portfolio value and open positions
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- Win rate and strategy performance
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- Market insights and recommendations
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Use sub-agents to analyze multiple markets in parallel during high-volume periods.
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Never use real money. This is paper trading only.
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```
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4. Iterate on strategies based on performance. Adjust thresholds, add new strategies, backtest historical data.
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## Related Links
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- [Polymarket API](https://docs.polymarket.com/)
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- [Paper Trading Best Practices](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/11/paper-trading.asp)
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