3.3 KiB
Polymarket Autopilot: Automated Paper Trading
Manually monitoring prediction markets for arbitrage opportunities and executing trades is time-consuming and requires constant attention. You want to test and refine trading strategies without risking real capital.
This workflow automates paper trading on Polymarket with custom strategies:
• Monitors market data via API (prices, volume, spreads) • Executes paper trades using TAIL (trend-following) and BONDING (contrarian) strategies • Tracks portfolio performance, P&L, and win rate • Delivers daily summaries to Discord with trade logs and insights • Learns from patterns: adjusts strategy parameters based on backtesting results
Pain Point
Prediction markets move fast. Manual trading means missing opportunities, emotional decisions, and difficulty tracking what works. Testing strategies with real money risks losses before you understand market behavior.
What It Does
The autopilot continuously scans Polymarket for opportunities, simulates trades using configurable strategies, and logs everything for analysis. You wake up to a summary of what it "traded" overnight, what worked, and what didn't.
Example strategies:
- TAIL: Follow trends when volume spikes and momentum is clear
- BONDING: Buy contrarian positions when markets overreact to news
- SPREAD: Identify mispriced markets with arbitrage potential
Skills Needed
web_searchorweb_fetch(for Polymarket API data)postgresor SQLite for trade logs and portfolio tracking- Discord integration for daily reports
- Cron jobs for continuous monitoring
- Sub-agent spawning for parallel market analysis
How to Set it Up
- Set up a database for paper trading:
CREATE TABLE paper_trades (
id SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
market_id TEXT,
market_name TEXT,
strategy TEXT,
direction TEXT,
entry_price DECIMAL,
exit_price DECIMAL,
quantity DECIMAL,
pnl DECIMAL,
timestamp TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW()
);
CREATE TABLE portfolio (
id SERIAL PRIMARY KEY,
total_value DECIMAL,
cash DECIMAL,
positions JSONB,
updated_at TIMESTAMPTZ DEFAULT NOW()
);
-
Create a Discord channel for updates (e.g., #polymarket-autopilot).
-
Prompt OpenClaw:
You are a Polymarket paper trading autopilot. Run continuously (via cron every 15 minutes):
1. Fetch current market data from Polymarket API
2. Analyze opportunities using these strategies:
- TAIL: Follow strong trends (>60% probability + volume spike)
- BONDING: Contrarian plays on overreactions (sudden drops >10% on news)
- SPREAD: Arbitrage when YES+NO > 1.05
3. Execute paper trades in the database (starting capital: $10,000)
4. Track portfolio state and update positions
Every morning at 8 AM, post a summary to Discord #polymarket-autopilot:
- Yesterday's trades (entry/exit prices, P&L)
- Current portfolio value and open positions
- Win rate and strategy performance
- Market insights and recommendations
Use sub-agents to analyze multiple markets in parallel during high-volume periods.
Never use real money. This is paper trading only.
- Iterate on strategies based on performance. Adjust thresholds, add new strategies, backtest historical data.